TPLF’s military: the greatest obstacle to Ethiopia’s change - by Addissu Admas

By any quantifiable measure, the TPLF must consider itself among the most successful “liberation fronts” that have dotted the entire Twentieth Century. Not only has it succeeded in “liberating” the land for which it fought, but it has been able to turn its supposed oppressor Ethiopia into a tributary state.  

And in the process, it has reduced Eritrea and its people, which have always looked down upon it and its people, into poverty and isolation. Indeed, the TPLF has succeeded beyond its wildest imagination to the utter consternation of the Ethiopian people!

For Twenty-seven excruciatingly long years the TPLF has been able to practically do anything it wished; not because the people put their faith in the wisdom of Meles Zenawi, nor much less because it promoted sensible policies. 

But quite simply because it used effectively two powerful tools at its disposal: the tribalistic politics of “Divide and Rule” which it implemented as soon as it took hold of the airwaves, and the transformation of its guerrilla army into a regular military force. In disbanding the Ethiopian military, the TPLF never entertained nor promoted the idea of an all ethnically inclusive military force, but actively sought, with complete disregard for the constitution, to turn its own guerilla force into a military thoroughly dedicated to the maintenance, furtherance and domination of the TPLF.  

In other words, it continued to be the military branch of the party. Thus its top military brass, or perhaps more accurately, the middle and higher officer military class remained almost completely dominated by its own ethnic members. To the point, I may add, that Tigrigna became the language in which the officer class conducted their day to day communications. And since the death of Meles Zenawi, it appears that it has become a separate body answerable only to TPLF party bosses, and not to the elected officials of the EPRDF.

The ethnic politics of the TPLF has been discussed extensively throughout these past twenty-seven years. Except for those who voluntarily delude themselves, or suffer from incurable naiveté, every Ethiopian has known for years why the TPLF has been playing the “ethnicity politics” and actively sowing discord among Ethiopia’s numerous ethnic groups. This has not only failed to take permanent hold among Ethiopians, but has indeed had the opposite effect: today Ethiopians have loudly declared not only their desire to maintain their historic commonwealth, but have vigorously re-affirmed their commonality and unity. And this could not have come by any stretch of imagination as a welcome news to the TPLF. By declaring their unity and commonality, Ethiopians have come to realize that their sole enemy is the TPLF, and not each other.

What has not received sufficient attention, in my opinion, and what indeed remains the primary cause which has in effect frustrated all democratic change in Ethiopia, and continues to be the greatest obstacle to open dialogue among all involved groups, is TPLF’s exclusive hold of the military and security apparatus.

I am among the most fervid well-wishers of Dr. Abiy. I have appreciated and supported most of the opinions that he has expressed so far. His dialogic approach, in contrast to Meles Zenawi’s condescending lectures and Mengistu’s hectoring speeches, are truly a breath of fresh air in Ethiopia’s recent history. 

I hope that he will maintain his visions and his style for as long as he will remain in power! But regardless of his good intentions, and despite the fact that he has spent most of his career as a military man and an official of the security services, Dr Abiy’s main obstacle will come precisely from these two latter institutions! Even though he appears to speak Tigrigna confidently, and appears to be at ease with the TPLF top cadre, he is definitely not one of them! He has and will have to walk a tight rope for the foreseeable future. 

While he has shown to be completely in tune with what the people want, he is also quite aware what the TPLF is willing to concede and not concede. However, it is quite obvious that the TPLF will allow neither Dr. Abiy, nor much less the House of Representatives to re-structure, or more precisely to re-build the Ethiopian military, security and bureaucracy along the mandates of the Constitution. Accepting to do so would virtually mean for the TPLF capitulating and relinquishing thoroughly its hegemony. Only an incurable optimist would hope for such an outcome.

Even though all the stake holders in the Ethiopian polity, including the TPLF, are quite clearly aware of the un-tenability and sustainability of a minority ethnic group dominating the entire state apparatus, the military, and security systems, no active measure has been taken so far to even alter it minimally. 

As I reiterate a point I have made elsewhere, there cannot be any form of democratic governance where the military and security are the sole guarantors of a particular political party. In the case of Ethiopia, the situation is exacerbated by the fact that the military and security apparatus are not only entirely dedicated to serving the maintenance in power of a particular party, but the hegemony, prosperity and privilege of their own ethnic base.

The first question then becomes how to re-build or re-erect a truly all inclusive, ethnically proportional Ethiopia military, security and bureaucratic apparatus? And secondly, how to make these completely subordinate to a democratically elected government? These two objectives can be achieved either peacefully or violently. 

I am, of course, all for peaceful solutions. And if such is the route that will be taken, then the TPLF must not only accept the results of a democratically and transparently conducted elections, which it will lose very likely, but also submit to all foundational changes the newly elected government must and will demand. 

But as we all know, no person or party will relinquish power, privilege and wealth just for the asking. Moreover, what of all the human and civil rights abuses? Not to mention the contempt and disrespect with which the rest of the Ethiopian peoples have been treated for the past twenty-seven years? These are not things we can sing away under the banner of national reconciliation. Every crime, every misdeed, and every slight demands its own reckoning, as it should. Otherwise, we will forever repeat the same mistakes.

Dr. Abiy has been unquestionably successful in calming the protests. He was able to lift the State of Emergency ahead of its deadline; indeed, it is quite a feat for any leader to be able to quell the tidal wave of protests when no amount of force was thought sufficient to stop it. However, we must not delude ourselves that the anger is gone; it is still smoldering under a calm facade. The Ethiopian people, though hopeful, are waiting for true change to come. For now, the TPLF should appreciate the reprieve that Dr. Abiy has been able to secure for it. But the wait cannot be indefinite.

Should hubris lead the TPLF to use its armed wing and security apparatus to wage war on the Ethiopian people, it will not only destroy itself and the people it has claimed to have fought for, but could plunge the entire nation into a civil war. If it has a modicum of common sense and decency it would simply submit to a democratically led process; whatever the outcome, whatever the consequences. 

If it chooses otherwise, the people that it has oppressed and treated with utter contempt for a whole generation will unleash all the anger that they have so far contained with civility and grace. The choice is TPLF’s; it must choose wisely; it is, after all, a question of Ethiopia’s survival as a nation.